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Assessment of Armenia’s Energy Security and Climate Indicators under Energy Transition Scenarios for 2030–2050

Assessment of Armenia’s Energy Security and Climate Indicators under Energy Transition Scenarios for 2030–2050

This research evaluates Armenia’s long-term energy security and CO₂ emission drivers across multiple energy transition scenarios, integrating TIMES-Armenia modelling with international indicator frameworks.

Abstract: This research project aims to quantitatively assess Armenia’s energy security and the key drivers of CO2 emissions under up to five energy transition scenarios from 2019 to 2050, focusing on the base year 2019 and target years 2030, 2040, and 2050. Scenarios will be selected from the Armenia Least Cost Energy Development Plan for 2024–2050 (LCEDP) developed in 2022 within the framework of the USAID-funded Market Liberalization and Electricity Trade Program using the TIMES-Armenia model.

The assessment will draw on data from the TIMES-Armenia model and the LCEDP analysis and incorporate internationally recognized indicators for energy security and CO2 emission drivers calculation. Energy security will be assessed across supply-side and demand-side patterns and economic indicators. Drivers of CO2 emissions will be analyzed using data on emissions, GDP per capita, fossil fuel and energy consumption, applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method to identify the key sectoral and structural contributors.

This study will provide the first data-driven long-term assessment of Armenia’s energy security and CO2 emission drivers during the energy transition. By combining quantitative modeling with stakeholder consultations, the project will generate evidence-based insights to guide national energy planning, inform investment priorities, and support Armenia’s transition toward a secure, sustainable, and low-carbon energy future.

Gayane Kolyan

Gayane Kolyan

Gayane Kolyan leads multiple tasks within the STREACS project at the AUA Acopian Center for the Environment. She holds a PhD in Power Engineering and has extensive experience in energy transition policy, renewable energy integration, and power sector planning. Her work supports Armenia's energy-sector reforms by contributing to regulatory frameworks, renewable energy development, and institutional capacity building.
Vincenzo Bianco

Vincenzo Bianco

Dr. Vincenzo Bianco has been a Full Professor of Thermal and Energy Systems at the University of Naples "Parthenope" since 2023, specializing in energy planning, energy management, heat transfer, and CFD analysis. He previously held academic positions at the University of Genoa and earned his PhD in Mechanical Engineering in 2010. His experience also includes industry roles at Enel Produzione SpA and Value Partners Management Consulting SpA.

Gayane Kolyan

Gayane Kolyan

Gayane Kolyan leads multiple tasks within the STREACS project at the AUA Acopian Center for the Environment. She holds a PhD in Power Engineering and has extensive experience in energy transition policy, renewable energy integration, and power sector planning. Her work supports Armenia's energy-sector reforms by contributing to regulatory frameworks, renewable energy development, and institutional capacity building.
Karine Sargsyan

Karine Sargsyan

Karine Sargsyan is a Scientific Researcher at SRIE with degrees in environmental engineering in the energy field from NPUA. Her work centers on modelling Armenia's energy system and analyzing long-term, cost-effective development pathways, and she is involved in international projects related to low-carbon transitions and hydropower reporting.
Nazeli Gevorgyan

Nazeli Gevorgyan

Nazeli Gevorgyan is a leading engineer at the Scientific Research Institute of Energy with a background in engineering from NPUA. Her work focuses on energy system modeling, energy consumption analysis, and renewable energy integration, contributing to national and regional projects supporting Armenia's energy transition through data-driven planning and analysis.
Tatevik Hakobyan

Tatevik Hakobyan

Tatevik Hakobyan holds a Master's degree in Power Engineering and works at Electric Power System Operator CJSC as Deputy Head of Power System Market Operations and Information Provision. Her work focuses on energy system modeling, operational planning, renewable integration, and power market development to support Armenia's energy transition.
Armine Arzumanyan

Armine Arzumanyan

Armine Arzumanyan is a lead engineer at the Scientific Research Institute of Energy, specializing in energy system modeling and efficiency. Her work focuses on renewable integration, grid stability, and reducing losses in electrical networks. Her research interests include energy transition and power system resilience.